China Seizes Offshore Wind Leadership as U.S. Projects Stall — A Strategic Wake-Up Call for America
China’s state-backed energy giants are accelerating their expansion into offshore wind power just as the United States’ renewable ambitions have begun to stall.
The latest data from Rystad Energy paints a clear picture: by the end of 2025, nearly two-thirds of all new offshore wind capacity worldwide will be built in China.
For a nation that has long dominated fossil fuel manufacturing and solar panels, Beijing’s emerging supremacy in offshore wind marks the next phase of a deeper energy strategy — one that could leave the United States dependent, not just on Chinese minerals, but on the very infrastructure meant to secure America’s clean energy future.
The Rystad report forecasts that global offshore wind installations will reach 16 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2025, with China responsible for over 10 GW of that total.
By 2030, China’s projects are expected to account for nearly 45% of the world’s cumulative offshore wind capacity — an unprecedented concentration of clean-energy power in a single nation’s hands.
Meanwhile, the United States, once poised to become a major offshore wind player, has seen its momentum collapse. Policy reversals, canceled tax incentives, supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation have combined to halt or delay nearly every major U.S. offshore wind project.
The Biden administration’s early goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030 now looks increasingly distant. Developers such as Ørsted and Equinor have faced lawsuits, regulatory reversals, and mounting costs that make progress nearly impossible.
While America hesitates, China is surging ahead — quietly building an energy future that could define the global balance of power.
China’s offshore wind dominance did not happen by chance. It is the result of a coordinated state-led effort that treats renewable energy not only as a climate imperative, but as a strategic pillar of industrial and geopolitical power.
The Chinese government has provided massive subsidies, low-interest financing, and accelerated permitting for state-owned companies like CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Corporation), which is now leading the country’s push into renewable seas.
Its upcoming 1.5 GW Hainan offshore wind zone, already approved and scheduled for completion before 2030, will be China’s first utility-scale offshore wind project — and a symbol of its hybrid strategy: transitioning from oil to renewables while maintaining state control over both.
Beijing’s approach is pragmatic and aggressive. By using the same model that made it a solar manufacturing superpower, China is rapidly securing the full offshore wind supply chain, from turbine components to installation vessels.
Western analysts estimate that one in every four turbine manufacturing facilities serving Western companies now operates in China. That includes factories producing IEC-certified components used by European and American firms — meaning even Western wind projects rely, indirectly, on Chinese manufacturing.
While China’s renewable dominance may sound like a climate success story, it represents a serious strategic vulnerability for the United States.
Just as the U.S. learned during the COVID-19 pandemic and the semiconductor shortage, supply chain concentration can translate into national risk. If China controls the majority of global wind turbine production, materials, and installation capacity, it can influence — even dictate — the cost and timing of clean energy transitions elsewhere.
In essence, China could become the OPEC of renewable infrastructure, setting the pace for a technology that the U.S. and its allies urgently need to combat both climate change and energy insecurity.
Alexander Fløtre, Senior Vice President of Offshore Wind Research at Rystad Energy, summarized the situation bluntly:
“The U.S.–China supply chain may be decoupled, but China’s position as a global renewables leader may have only been strengthened because of it.”
That statement should ring alarm bells in Washington. The United States’ attempt to insulate itself from Chinese dependence in one sector — oil and gas — has inadvertently handed Beijing dominance in another: the clean energy economy.
The domestic situation is grim. According to Rystad, U.S. renewable energy investment has fallen by 36% year-over-year in 2025, with developers freezing or canceling projects amid regulatory uncertainty and cost overruns.
Two of the country’s most ambitious offshore wind projects — Ørsted’s Revolution Wind in Rhode Island and Equinor’s Empire Wind in New York — faced court injunctions, federal delays, and stop-work orders.
Although some of those restrictions have since been lifted, the disruptions have already scared away European investors, who are now redirecting capital toward more stable markets in Asia and Europe.
This hesitation is proving costly. Every month of delay widens the gap between the U.S. and China in offshore technology, turbine scale, and installation capacity. Beijing, by contrast, continues to operate with streamlined approvals, low financing costs, and centralized coordination — all of which allow it to deploy gigawatts of new capacity faster and cheaper than any Western rival.
Europe, long the leader in offshore wind, has already recognized the danger. European policymakers are now mobilizing industrial policies to reduce reliance on Chinese imports and rebuild domestic manufacturing capacity.
Andrea Scassola, Rystad’s Vice President of Supply Chain Research, said:
“Officials hope such measures will encourage manufacturing buildouts while keeping costs in check.”
The European Union has introduced tax credits, local content rules, and strategic investment funds to bring turbine component production back to the continent.
Yet in the United States, no comparable effort exists at the necessary scale. Without strong incentives for onshore manufacturing, port infrastructure, and workforce training, America risks becoming permanently dependent on foreign suppliers for its clean energy buildout.
China’s rise in offshore wind is not simply about low prices; it’s about industrial control. By dominating the production of rare earth metals, magnet systems, and marine turbines, China holds leverage over nearly every stage of the offshore wind lifecycle.
This dominance enables Beijing to do three things simultaneously:
That combination makes it nearly impossible for Western firms to compete on cost — or to build projects without Chinese components.
The strategic consequence is clear: if Beijing decides to restrict exports or redirect production to its domestic market, the entire global offshore wind industry could be thrown into disarray.
For years, Washington and its allies have promoted “decoupling” — reducing economic dependency on China in critical sectors. But in offshore wind, that strategy has largely failed.
While U.S. policymakers focused on boosting oil and gas output to ensure energy independence, China used the same period to conquer the next frontier of energy technology.
The result is a paradox: America is more self-sufficient in fossil fuels but more dependent on China for renewable infrastructure — the very technology meant to replace fossil fuels in the coming decades.
It’s a strategic imbalance that undermines both national security and climate goals.
Rebuilding U.S. leadership in offshore wind does not require abandoning global trade or engaging in economic nationalism.
It requires strategic coordination, targeted investment, and transparency across the entire supply chain.
Policymakers should:
These are not ideological proposals—they are pragmatic steps toward energy security.
China’s dominance in offshore wind is not simply an industrial achievement; it is a strategic maneuver.
Beijing has positioned itself to lead the world’s energy transition on its own terms, using the same playbook that made it indispensable in solar and battery manufacturing.
For the United States, the message is unmistakable: energy independence in the 21st century is not just about oil — it’s about control over the technologies that power the future.
If America allows its offshore wind industry to collapse while China races ahead, the consequences will extend far beyond electricity.
They will shape who controls the global energy system — and, ultimately, who controls the world’s economic destiny.
