High Stakes on the High Seas: How China’s Expanding Navy Threatens America’s Maritime Supremacy
When the USS Higgins sailed through the contested waters near Scarborough Shoal in August, the world caught a glimpse of an increasingly dangerous reality — the age of uncontested American dominance at sea is ending. As U.S. destroyers and submarines navigate international waters claimed by Beijing, China’s navy shadows, challenges, and, at times, outright confronts them. The incident near Scarborough Shoal was no isolated provocation; it was a warning that the balance of power on the world’s oceans — long anchored by American deterrence — is tilting eastward.
Today, China’s navy is not only the world’s largest by ship count, but it is expanding at a pace unseen since the height of the Cold War. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) now operates more than 370 vessels, compared to roughly 290 for the United States. By raw tonnage, America’s fleet remains heavier, but Beijing’s trajectory is unmistakable: with massive industrial output, state-directed shipbuilding, and a clear strategic goal — to push the United States and its allies out of the Indo-Pacific — China is positioning itself to challenge Washington where it has reigned supreme for nearly eight decades.
The expansion of the PLAN is not simply a matter of national pride; it is the core of Beijing’s plan to reshape the global order. Each new destroyer and submarine serves a dual purpose — projecting military strength and signaling political resolve. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China’s navy has transformed from a coastal defense force into a blue-water fleet capable of sustained operations far from its shores. The once-regional power now boasts aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, and nuclear-powered submarines that can threaten U.S. interests from the Indian Ocean to the Central Pacific.
Beijing’s motives are clear. Control of the sea means control of trade, influence, and information. The South China Sea alone accounts for one-third of global maritime commerce, worth trillions annually. By militarizing artificial islands and deploying warships around strategic choke points, China aims to turn these international waters into de facto Chinese territory — a move that undermines international law and threatens the principle of free navigation that has underpinned global stability since World War II.
Every U.S. freedom-of-navigation operation — such as the one conducted by the Higgins — is now met with aggressive countermeasures: Chinese destroyers locking radar, issuing warnings, and maneuvering dangerously close. These provocations are designed not just to intimidate, but to normalize Beijing’s illegal claims. Each confrontation tests how far the U.S. is willing to go to defend the global commons, while probing the limits of American resolve.
Perhaps the most alarming aspect of China’s naval rise is not its fleet’s size, but the speed of its expansion. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China’s shipbuilding industry possesses nearly 200 times the production capacity of the United States. State-owned shipyards in Shanghai, Dalian, and Guangzhou churn out new destroyers, submarines, and frigates with assembly-line efficiency, backed by generous government subsidies and an immense industrial workforce.
In contrast, America’s shipbuilding base has shrunk to a handful of key yards — Huntington Ingalls in Virginia and Mississippi, and General Dynamics facilities in Maine and Connecticut. Budget fluctuations, workforce shortages, and supply chain disruptions have slowed production to a crawl. The U.S. Navy currently completes just one or two new Virginia-class submarines per year, far short of its strategic needs. During the Cold War, over a dozen shipyards built combat vessels for the fleet; now, only a few remain active.
This imbalance gives Beijing a critical advantage in a prolonged conflict. The Chinese system, free from market constraints or profit pressures, can rapidly replace losses or expand production on command. The U.S., bound by legislative cycles and contractor bottlenecks, cannot match that tempo. In a war of attrition, China’s ability to outbuild America could prove decisive.
While the surface confrontation captures headlines, the most critical contest is unfolding in the deep. Beneath the Pacific’s vast expanse, U.S. and Chinese submarines shadow one another in silence — the invisible vanguard of modern deterrence. The U.S. Navy’s undersea force remains the world’s most advanced, with roughly 50 nuclear-powered attack submarines capable of global reach, stealth, and devastating precision. These submarines — especially the Virginia- and Columbia-class vessels — form the backbone of America’s nuclear and conventional deterrence.
But even here, China is closing the gap. The PLAN’s submarine fleet, once noisy and technologically primitive, is becoming faster, quieter, and more lethal. The new Type 093B nuclear attack subs and Type 094 ballistic missile boats rival Western designs in range and endurance. The Pentagon estimates that by the early 2030s, China could operate nearly 80 submarines, including a dozen nuclear-powered vessels.
Geography further strengthens Beijing’s hand. Operating close to home, Chinese submarines can take shelter under coastal missile defenses and operate in shallow, complex waters that complicate U.S. detection. In a conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea, these subs could blockade key shipping routes and threaten American carriers before they ever reach the battle space.
To counter this, the U.S. relies on a network of alliances and forward deployments — Japan’s undersea surveillance arrays, Australia’s patrol assets, and the AUKUS agreement that will deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra. As one naval analyst observed, “A submarine forward-based in Australia is worth three times its number because it’s already where the fight would happen.” The integration of allied forces across the Indo-Pacific remains one of Washington’s greatest advantages, but it requires sustained commitment and investment.
The competition between Washington and Beijing isn’t just military — it’s informational. Roughly 95 percent of the world’s internet data flows through fiber-optic cables lying on the ocean floor, many of which crisscross the Indo-Pacific. These cables carry everything from military communications to global financial transactions. U.S. intelligence officials now view them as potential targets in any future conflict.
China’s rapid expansion of deep-sea research and cable-laying vessels, nominally civilian, has blurred the line between commerce and espionage. Western analysts warn that these ships could be used to tap or sever communications, giving Beijing a powerful new form of leverage. A disruption to even a few major undersea cables could cripple economies, delay markets, and paralyze military coordination.
This undersea information warfare represents the next phase of strategic competition. The same authoritarian system that censors its own internet is now extending its reach beneath the waves — seeking to control not only what the world sees, but how it connects.
The numbers tell a sobering story: China’s navy continues to expand, its shipyards hum with activity, and its confidence grows by the day. The United States, meanwhile, faces industrial bottlenecks, aging infrastructure, and political gridlock that slow the pace of renewal. As one defense analyst put it, “To deter war, we have to close China’s window of opportunity fast.”
That means rebuilding America’s shipbuilding capacity, investing in autonomous and unmanned systems, and accelerating the integration of allied capabilities. It also means confronting the reality that deterrence requires visible strength. The illusion of peace, when built on declining capacity, invites the very aggression it seeks to prevent.
China’s strategy is clear — to test, intimidate, and erode America’s confidence until Beijing becomes the undisputed power in Asia’s seas. Each naval encounter, each new ship launched, is part of a long game aimed at displacing the U.S.-led order. The consequences of failure would not be confined to the Indo-Pacific. A world where Beijing controls the maritime arteries of trade and communication would be one where liberty, transparency, and rule of law are subordinated to coercion.
For nearly a century, the U.S. Navy has guaranteed the security of global commerce and the freedom of the seas. That legacy is now under its greatest test since World War II. China’s naval rise is not just a regional challenge — it is a global one. It threatens the open ocean system that enables free trade, democratic cooperation, and the internet itself.
The high seas are no longer a buffer between nations but the front line of a new era of competition. The question is not whether America can match China ship for ship, but whether it can sustain the will, the innovation, and the unity required to keep the oceans free. As Beijing builds ships at wartime speed, the United States must rediscover the strategic urgency that once defined its leadership. Because the tide of history, like the sea itself, never waits.
